Tuesday, March 31, 2020

31 MARCH, 2020 - NOW IT IS 8 TYPES ! (Double left click to open)



31 MARCH, 2020 - LET'S TAKE A TRIP... (double left click to open)

Watching the analytics, I am aware of you speed readers who view these long involved posts in less than 30 seconds before clicking out... but, I persist, here is another: 

  I have been heavily referencing that 1950's U.S. Army Training film on Bacteria and Viruses, yesterday, I got really angry at the release of an astounding "NEW" finding...that, "the COVID19 virus is airborne !!!!!!".

I raged on to the wife about how stupid this all is (to waste College educations on idiots), or trust the CDC with our lives, and I popped a brain cell ... only to remember about an update to my 1952 movie virus knowledge ... the 1980's building of a NASA bio safe "cleanroom"... So, I poked around and found my old notes about the experience.

We dedicated a warehouse to this project, and everyone involved had to attend training on what, how, why a cleanroom.  In short, anything that leaves our atmosphere must be sterile... absolutely free of microbes, molecules, electro-magnetism and particulates. 

The microbial (germ/virus) component is all I will address here, (as it was circa 1982-3):  Both, HEPA (High Efficiency Particulate Air filters) and Electro Static charged ion filtration of air were our forte', and in the early 1980's we had it down to 0.2 micron levels.

In street language for us normal people, a micron is a  nickname for a "micro meter", or a millionth of a European meter (1/1,000,000 meter) a scientific sizing standard. 

A human hair averages around 0.0035 inches in diameter, which is equivalent to 75 microns, Bacteria typically are only about 0.2-0.microns in diameter, but, viruses are 100 times smaller than bacteria.... Corona viruses are the smallest of all the viruses at only 0.004 micron size.

What all of that tells you is that we "can" use HEPA to filter out most Bacteria (and "some" Viruses), but "NOT" Corona.
Those N95 face masks filter out 95% of all particulates 0.30 microns and larger ...  but a face mask certainly does not filter out Corona virus at 0.004.

The "Clean Room" Air system controlled humidity, airborne contaminants, germicidal and VOC (Volatile Organic compounds), VOG (Volatile Organic Gasses), by using HEPA and carbon filters plus our well-known ionizer air system, and a Ph air oxygen/nitrogen/hydrogen percentile balancer, along with heating cooling temperature and pressurization controls.

155nm wave length ultra-violet virus killing lights and a microbial mist scrubber were used for the tiny stuff. The classes on Microbials were concerned with aerosol and contact contamination being recycled, so, mandatory pressurized suiting was in order which included an OBA with tank air and mask. There were vacuum ageing rooms used for finished products to be timed and black light irradiated, stored, then super-heated nitrogen blasted clean to ensure viruses were removed.

A lot of lab testing was done, and we learned a lot about catching and killing viruses, and how persistent and evasive they are. Including what happens in a car dealership, or hardware store, hospital or supermarket with air filtration.

For us to be pretending we knew none of this, and that we are "shocked" to learn about how viruses infect, is ludicrous.
We should be very taken by this entire process, and asking questions, to who I don't know, but, that might be a good way to get my mind off the virus... look at corruption experts, and politics.

Saturday, March 28, 2020

29 MARCH, 2020 - OVER ONE BILLION STAY-AT-HOMES (double left click to open)

Over one billion people are on lockdown in their homes, schools are closed, businesses are shutting down, pubs, bars, and restaurants are closed, campgrounds, beaches, amusement parks, theaters, concert halls, sports stadiums and arenas, neighborhood playgrounds and tennis, basketball courts, track and field, auto races, airline travel, ship cruises, railroad-subway, busses, and in some places even going fishing, boating, jogging, and to church is prohibited ... life is at a standstill.

Three months ago, we looked at, and celebrated the New Years & Holidays with a different perspective, a booming economy was to take us to travel and upcoming events, plans were laid out, and this election year promised to be great.
Putting this in perspective:

The CDC estimates that last year in the U.S. alone, influenza resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths !
Globally... (per day)

So, you can see from the chart above that the worst day of coronavirus deaths (686) is still lower than Flu, Swine Flu, Malaria, AIDS, Pneumonia, Hepatitis, Tuberculosis, even Malaria. (even at 1,000 a day covid19 only matches regular Flu).

But, when we talk potential, and ease of contagion, and look at rapidity.... COVID19 is really ugly, fast-moving and lethal, plus highly contagious.

Once we start to "watch" anything, it possesses us, (a watched pot never boils),  we can become alarmist, and cease to be scientific in thought very easily with panic and overreaction,  we do not know how crazy COVID19 daily numbers will go, but this graph should help align it... just remember all of those rating higher per day are known-curable (sorta')- slow- and have a battery of medicines, vaccinations, and experience in dealing with.

THAT.. is the difference with COVID19, it kills quickly, and is mostly an unknown with no pharmaceutical remedies. So, do the research, spend the time... be aware of the slowly oozing out and changing information... this is "old", known stuff, that started to as "not" being communicable, then went to stay three feet apart, then six feet apart, then stay-at-home... from mail being absolutely safe dangerous, from..... on and on.

28 march, 2020 - NO CURE FOR IGNORANCE

I had planned on yesterday being the last WARNING post on COVID19, ... over the past 21 posts I thought I had covered it all, and repeated myself enough, then, at this late, date articles like this hit on the Fox news  https://www.foxnews.com/tech/sanitizing-amazon-boxes-taking-uber-and-getting-food-properly-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic  and, I wonder how many of our readers say "boy! that's new news" because they have not followed along here for the last days on mvsofea.com

The next "new" stuff to be released will be, again, very old "known" facts that the CDC is slowly leaking out (to avert panic while infecting thousands), again, we have discussed these topics earlier on here, contamination in clothing, upholstery, etc, and wet-eyeball contagion.

Ever wonder why at the doctor's office and hospital, everyone is wearing blue paper booties, trousers, and tops, a surgical mask, a hair cap, gloves and usually glasses? 

These poor people have chosen to expose themselves to possibly hundreds of sick, dying, filthy patients during a 10 hour (+) shift, every day... at the end of that shift, they literally "burn" their clothes, go home (or to the locker room) shower and hope that the protective clothing prevented 90 % of their chances of being exposed to something lethal.

The reason "WHY" is that clothing absorbs virus and bacteria... and the eyeball is the number one ingestion point for all of it, a wet eyeball is by far the best receptor for aerosol stuff...  like viruses, liquid absorbed by liquid ...  virus/bacteria on hands, face, and clothing can be washed away, killed, but eye ingestion is instant, and cannot be undone, hence, the number ONE transmission route into the human body "is" the eye... that's why all the handwashing warnings and do not touch your face.   making eye protection far more important than the breathing-in or on-your-hands worries.

The cloth/fabric contamination goes into the laundry basket, spreading to everything... burning your days' blue paper suit works better. never rub your eyes... do you know why?

The booty thing is about tracking in virus/bacteria on shoe soles, then to spread everywhere... and be picked up by toddlers, bare feet and stockings...a no-shoe household policy like in third world countries (Japan, Asia, Near East) was not created just for muddy boots...

recirculated air in stores, and our water supply... veined, soft-skinned water-absorbing fruits and vegetables that we do not cook... and of course money.... and someone else's pet... again........take-out food is alarmingly scary, and the discussion about this being the first "warning" wave only...with the "BIG one" coming in December, has been covered up completely.

Wait a week or so, and the CDC will announce all of this too... they just have to pretend to "learn" about these things, or watch an old WW2 Army Training film.  Please, reread and study about how this virus is spread, and why it is spreading...... the Virus can be cured, but there is no cure for ignorance.

The European Union initially dismissed the threat of the Wuhan virus in late 25 February when Italy had just a few hundred cases, and refused to enact border controls. 
30 days later, as of 25 March, 2020, the number of cases in Italy has increased to over 80,000 and a death toll, now at over 8,000. 

Friday, March 27, 2020



watch for hyper-links:
I first heard of the COVID-19 virus after the first confirmed case in China was reported to us in a Chinese morning news release way back on 17 November, (reconfirmed here), but, the delayed Chinese propaganda version claims Wei Guixian, a 57-year-old woman working in Wuhan, was the first person on record to be infected with COVID19, she started feeling sick on December 10. (a delay of 3 weeks from 19 November), and, by 31 December, there were 381 cases (per the Propaganda).

Thinking she might have the flu, she went to a local clinic seeking treatment. She was given some pills and then went back to work, selling live shrimp at the live wet fishmarket in Wuhan, China.
A week later and Wei was barely conscious and clinging to life in a Chinese hospital bed, and she had infected hundreds at the market after contaminating all of the open food/meat bins.
I began tracking COVID19 here in Oregon on these pages after the first case arose in Portland, on 1 March calling that "Oregon day one", in just 27 short days since, we have accrued 414 cases and 12 deaths, and been issued a Governor's state-wide decree.

Over these last 20 March postings, I have pretty well exhausted all of my small brain and laid out my COVID19 opinion stance, my forecast for the future is now all that you have yet to endure. There are the over responders, under responders, and those who don’t care.

Already, we are seeing prices increasing from pet food through groceries, using Instacart adds delivery fees and shopping on Amazon/Wal Mart/Instacart eliminates you from sales savings, so, overall our food bill has gone up 10% (just to get it delivered to the boat), and this has just begun.

The missing products and the unavailability, long delivery times and price increases bode poorly for what is to come.

So here is my prediction:

30 March; Reality sinks in over the weekend, and suddenly families now are taking this more seriously, but, another weekend of party gatherings bring yet another dictate of "stay at home" and enforcement, with even more restrictions on take-out foods and assembly.

1-3 April; the social security checks hit, and the "REAL" shopping begins... but, the results of a buying frenzy over the weekend of the 28th 29th stripped the shelves and there is little product, after the frenzied shopping, by the 7th ...tempers begin to flare. The Internet breaks down with online ordering, and other problems arise from the strain of people finally realizing the virus results.

11-12 April; The first glimmer of social unrest begins, anger, frustration arises over supplies, alcohol, marijuana, cigarette shortages, and control of movement, creating enforcement issues and a lot of unruly, angry crowds.  All while the U.S. COVID19 numbers rise alarmingly and in unison with gun and ammunition sales, the food supply starts to become spotty.

18-19 April;  The Governor issues a strict almost national Guard level control over incoming hordes trying to settle in Oregon relief from California Covid, the locals begin angry demonstrations about everything. Closed businesses go to online sales, the high shipping volumes pose a risk of COVID transportation contagion everywhere, the continued shortages start to be noticed heavily, and the "homeless" problems will be huge.  food prices soar, and the variety drops.

MAYDAY;  By 11 May, we are in freefall, the numbers are way up but will not peak and level out until early-mid month, I see things now being grim...with financial losses not seeing a let-up, and businesses forced to face closure, bankruptcy, and loss, all the finger-pointing will begin.  There becomes a glut of unneeded unwanted useless real estate, office, and restaurant equipment, and repo man lives well. the rest of the country is in worse shape, and I fully expect looting and roaming ("Escape from New York" style) chaos.  marriages and housing issues arise, it will take all of May to fester and break-out, but June will be the apex and a leveling off month.  Numbers in the east should start to dramatically drop.

JUNE;  I see this month as very scary out on the street, total lawlessness and danger, anarchy, and apocalyptic nutso'... and I really hope I am wrong !   flat high-level west coast infection rates, I think mid-May and all of June in Oregon will be months we are not proud of.

JULY; grimace... our second Oregon high level flat line contagion month until the western states numbers begin to drop around July 15th, Stores continue shutting their doors to stop the contagion while ramping up online sales.

AUGUST;  Finally the infection curve drops and restraints loosen, but the damage is done, and we are changed (very substantially) as a public society.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

26 MARCH, 2020 - EXCUSE ME !

According to a running count by Johns Hopkins University, the number of people infected in the U.S. topped 82,000 on Thursday. That's just ahead of the 81,000 cases in China and 80,000 in Italy.

What we learned in the Navy (back in 1961) from the 1951 Army Korean War Training films...

Now 70 years later...  it now makes "NO" sense and is very scary that supposed Professional MD Virologists spread very obvious intentional misinformation (as if to avert panic) to the media, and then on to the man on the street.

So here is another (my 24th) mvsofea.com post about germ and viral warfare survival (as the Army learned about after the 1918 US Army viral pandemic that killed off 1/2 the world population)...  now re-applied to the COVID19 virus,  knowledge that seems to have been forgotten by science and the US government in 2020.

NOTE: In many of my earlier mvsofea.com posts, there are many more Bacteria/Virus information posts, as applied to Oceanography, and Marine Biology as well.
For us uneducated kids in the Navy, bacteria was explained to us in a cute cartoon as being a flea, and viruses a flea inside a plastic bag ... so, a flea could be crushed, drowned or burned up and killed, but a flea in a bag had to have his protective bubble pierced first (very hard to do), they can float, resist fire, and bounce rather than crush, then, the fact of being microscopic and unseeable as well was made.  Alkalai granulated soap, alcohol, bleach, and some kind of white powder was shown cleaning, and disinfecting various things.

Corona viruses are called "enveloped" viruses, high temperature blows the bag up, many chemicals "dissolve" the bag, and kills the virus inside... but, where this latest public information has failed is in explaining transmission and lifespan of the virus (again, I assume to allay "panic" with the truth), but, it "should" all be common sense.

Back in 1950 spray cans were not popular yet (The first spray paint was invented by Edward H. Seymour in 1949) ... so, the film showed a pump up garden sprayer as "Aerosol"... the handshake, elevator button push, rotary phone dial demonstrated "Contact", and, kissing your girlfriend, and eating a sneezed-on pizza, and a mosquito bite rounded out the transmission methods. (here is a 2020 reword of that 1950 knowledge).

The overly simple Army movie went on to say, "Now that we know what bacteria and viruses are, and how we transmit them, and how we can kill them, why even worry about them ?

We worry about them because of "where" they live and how "long" they live... They live almost everywhere... (scanning pictures of toilets, doorknobs, a mattress, a sandwich, and a swimming pool) and can live as long as 5,000 years  (showing pictures of a mummy in Egypt, a museum dinosaur exhibit, and ice in an Antarctic glacier).


COVID19 remains active in any liquid, wet or moist medium, even when that moisture dries out, a conservative projection of COVID19 "dry surface" dormancy would be at least 5 to 7 days. so, any virus can survive outside the human body for varying lengths of time (weeks, months, years).

A very long following showed us, Private Jones, again, as the soldier enters, and moves around in a storeroom (and all of the ways he could contact or transmit a bacteria or Virus infection), with the "biosources" eerily glowing in the black and white film making, the garden sprayer simulates an aerosol sneeze in a parts storeroom with boxes on shelves after he sneezes three times infecting everything, telephone, books, pencils, upholstery, windows parts boxes, countertop, his shoes, and the tile floor, he leaves... and a very monotonous overdone sequence shows people arriving to deliver and pick up stuff, and everyone gets infected from the three sneezed droplets left behind by private Jones.

Next was the inoculation list of what the US Army would protect you from with shots... there were like 30 different varieties, and in the following days we all got lined up and perforated mercilessly.

Still today, Johns Hopkins, Mayo Clinic, Princeton U., Cleveland Clinic, the VA, and UCLA Medical all agree with that old, 1950 Army film about Virus transmission and lifespan... only the WHO, US Government, and CDC persist in telling us otherwise. 

Bottom line...Viruses can survive outside the human body for varying lengths of time.

 Whenever you are in a store, a building, an office and especially a jetliner, you are going to be exposed to, and forced to breathe recycled air that can easily be carrying, and transmitting, any number of infectious viruses and bacteria.


In all of my earlier posts I have been very critical with take-out foods.
"My" personal biggest worry area is foodborne infection via aerosol, which (so far) has been totally and absolutely poo-poo'd by all...    take-out food, serving line food, and batch-made "held" foods are much-much different than those cooked-to-order at home, or even cooked-to-order in a restaurant meals.

Dropping a food temperature below 170 degree F is always a problem, even as food travels from griddle/oven to your table. 
Workers handling menu's, making change, handling money and credit cards then returning to the grill and touching bread, garnishes, doing plate assembly and eating utensils by hand, and using the "apron towel', aerosol coughing, talking, sneezing from "working-while-sick" employees, food servers, and cooks without gloves, and no hand washing, as a meal gets to your placemat or into a bag makes no sense.

A 2 gallon Chile batch selling nothing at the end of a day goes into the walk-in, how many times ?  heated up, held, cooled down, reheated, held, cooled down, etc.  MMMM GOOD!

Tuesday, March 24, 2020


By Jared Anderson/Siuslaw news
March 24, 2020 — “Now is not the time to travel far from home. Especially to our amazing Oregon coastal communities,” Travel Lane County said in a press release on Sunday (March 22). “Visitors have been flocking to Florence and other coastal communities, making social distancing difficult for local residents and visitors.”
The organization then quoted Florence City Manager Erin Reynolds, who said, “Not only is it difficult to practice social distancing, it is putting a strain on our essential services, emergency responders and already depleted resources.”
Travel Lane County stated that people could take a solitary walk, hike or bike ride to stay active, but that everyone should “… Do our part in slowing the spread of COVID-19 and stay close to home.”
This, and other warnings by governments up and down the coast, were ignored over the weekend as thousands of tourists flocked to the beaches and sand dunes of the coast, including in the Siuslaw region.
Prompted partly by this, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown instituted more severe social distancing measures with Executive Order 20-12, which she issued earlier today, March 23.
“I started by asking Oregonians to stay home and practice social distancing,” Brown said in a press release on Monday. “Then I urged the public to follow these recommendations. Instead, thousands crowded the beaches of coastal communities, our trails, our parks and our city streets, potentially spreading COVID-19 and endangering the lives of others across the state. Now, I’m ordering it. To save lives and protect our community.”
The executive order directed state agencies to close parks and other outdoor spaces where social distancing could not be maintained, while also closing outdoor and indoor malls, health clubs and yoga studios, bowling alleys, amusement parks and pool halls.
“All non-essential social and recreational gatherings of individuals are prohibited immediately, regardless of size, if a distance of at least six feet between individuals cannot be maintained,” Brown ordered.
As per the executive order, failure to comply will be considered an immediate danger to public health and subject to a Class C misdemeanor.
This comes days after the Center for Disease Control (CDC) released preliminary data on the mortality rates of the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19, which shows a fatality rate between 10 and 27 percent of patients age 85 and older, along with a rate of 3 to 11 percent for those age 65 and older. Those two groups make a near majority of Florence residents.
The governor’s order also comes after a group of studies showing how quickly COVID-19 is expected to spread, and how little time Americans have to prepare. One Columbia University study suggested that Lane County could see as many as 230,000 cases of the disease unless severe restrictions are put in place. How long those measures are needed to keep the suppression of the numbers is unknown but could last as long as 18 months.
This has led to a growing debate around the efficacy of such measures when compared to the economic hardships they bring — and whether the “cure” for slowing the spread could be worse than the disease itself.
“I’m hoping spring break is very quiet here, and the beaches are empty,” Western Lane Ambulance and Siuslaw Valley Fire and Rescue Chief Michael Schick told the Siuslaw News last Thursday.
But on Sunday, various tourist hotspots in the Siuslaw region were bustling as others were uncharacteristically empty for the start of spring break. North of Florence, the beach next to Driftwood Shores was busy, with the parking lot just south of the resort overflowing. Beachgoers from all parts of Oregon and beyond parked up and down First Street for a chance to take a walk on the beach. While some practiced social distancing on the beach, others gathered in crowds.
In Historic Old Town Florence, the bulk of Bay Street remained quiet as restaurants such as 1285 Restobar shuttered their doors completely and others remained “take out only.” Inside, the open establishments adhered to social distancing policies, making customers wait 6 feet apart in lines.
But outside, groups stood closely together while eating take-out food from local restaurants on street corners and parks, while others sat on crowded patios, elbow to elbow.
South of town, past the now-closed movie theater and bowling alley, the South Jetty parking lots were packed as tourists flocked to ride the dunes. Groups of people sat in various picnic locations on tailgated trucks as the roars of ATVs filled the air.
While the tourists do present an opportunity to spread COVID-19 to the region, they also divert attention from first responders should accidents occur on the dunes. That could also put additional stress on hospitals as they prepare for a wave of COVID-19 patients.
Florence resident Mary Benson saw the crowds first-hand as she visited Heceta Head Beach over the weekend.
“We weren’t anticipating that many people down there,” she said. “My husband and I are both very elderly and severely handicapped. So, we just thought we would go and get a breath of fresh air. Silly us.”
As the couple sat in one of two handicapped places in the parking lot, they watched as the parking spaces quickly filled up, as both tourists and residents circled the parking lot, “trying to find anywhere to park.”
“A whole group of 10 people in a large SUV moved in next to us,” Benson said. “They were apparently staying at a hotel and saying how nice it was to be staying by the beach.”
The restrooms were closed on the beach, so tourists began urinating and defecating behind the building, or working their way down to the caves on the beach to urinate there.
“It’s bad enough being stuck in the house and not being able to go out,” Benson said. “But if you’re going out to get a breath of fresh air and you’ve got all this going on all around you, I don’t think people have that much sense.”
Benson’s major concern was not the spread of COVID-19 by out of town tourists, but the issues they were leaving behind.
“The crowds weren’t so bad, but there was no oversight, nobody watching out,” she said. “It’s a hygiene issue. That stuff isn’t going anywhere. When people can go back there, (the park) is going to be unfit to be on. It’s just making a lot of work for later on.”
Benson does not believe that Brown’s order to shut parks down would do any good if social distancing could not be enforced.
“That’s not going to stop people going there,” she said. “They’re going to go no matter what. It’s very well for people to say, ‘We’re going to close them,’ but then not put anybody down there to enforce that?”
Benson felt that there should be a park ranger on site at all times to at least keep restrooms open and clean them, collect fees for the park and enforce social distancing. 
“I just think it’s making work to not have somebody there,” she said.
But the argument against keeping the parks open is that it would endanger the lives of park keepers by exposing them to COVID-19, while also encouraging more tourists to come to the Siuslaw region. This could in turn put employees in the region, such as gas stations attendants, at risk of contracting the disease — as well as deplete resources from local grocers.
Siuslaw was not the only region visited by tourists over the weekend, and multiple coastal governments attempted to clamp down on the number of visitors to their community.
“Pack your bags and leave immediately,” Tillamook Mayor Suzanne Weber told tourists over the weekend. “Our community is small and our resources are few. Our community is not equipped to handle a significant community health crisis with tens of thousands of additional people.”
Cannon beach issued a resolution stating: “All visitors within the city’s jurisdiction are ordered to evacuate within 24 hours. … A visitor is defined as any individual who is spending time in the city for pleasure, recreation or non-business reasons and is not a resident, property owner or business owner.”
However, it was difficult for cities to stop tourists. The majority of Siuslaw region tourists were on state and national grounds, away from the jurisdiction of governments such as the City of Florence and Lane County. To be able to stop the tourists, a statewide decree was needed — which the governor implemented through Monday’s executive order.
The reasons for the severe regulations can be seen in a new study published by Columbia University and released in The New York Times on March 20. In that study, which tracked possible infections for every county in the U.S., three possible outcomes were analyzed: spread with no control measures, some control measures and severe control measures.
Until Monday, Oregon fit into the “some control measures” category, as was seen in Florence over the weekend. Some businesses were restricted while others were allowed to remain open.
In that case, the study predicted 100 total cases in Lane County by April 1. The numbers would continue to slowly rise, with only 700 cases by April 14. However, by April 26, the cases were predicted to rise to 2,800 — and by May 10, the county would see as many as 11,000 cases, representing 3 percent of the county’s population. Mid-May is when the cases would begin to spike, with 38,000 cases by May 25.
As a result, 21 percent of the population would have COVID-19 by June 4.
This trend of exponential growth would continue through mid-June with 66 percent of Lane County testing positive by Aug. 1 — with 230,000 cases of coronavirus infection.
Underscoring those numbers is a CDC report released March 18, which studied the fatality rates of individuals in the U.S. already diagnosed across the nation with the virus.
“This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged 85 [and over], ranging from 10 percent to 27 percent, followed by 3 to 11 percent among persons aged 65 to 84 years,” the CDC report stated.
One to three percent of persons aged 55-64 years old are dying, while less than one percent of persons aged 20-54 are being reported.
The United States Census states that 41 percent of City of Florence residents are aged 65 years and older. It’s an equation that could have devastating consequences in the event of a mass outbreak of COVID-19 in that population.
And the fatality risks could increase for younger populations if the hospitals become overloaded.
The CDC’s numbers are based on current infections, most of which are being treated with interventions such as ventilators.
One-in-four New York City patients with COVID-19 who require hospitalization are under 50 years of age. If a spike of infections overloads hospital systems, those younger patients that are currently being cared for could face increased fatality risks — as well as an increase in fatality rates among elderly patients.
The Columbia study suggested that the only way to avoid these numbers is to enact “severe control measures,” such as those enacted by Brown.
In that scenario study, Lane County would see less than 11 cases by April first, fewer than what would occur if the state remained at “some” measures. Lane County would not hit a 1-percent infection rate until June 28, with 3,400 cases. By Aug. 1, just 3 percent of Lane County would have COVID-19.
With just 9,200 cases, the county would have 220,800 fewer cases than what would occur with “some control measures.”
In the case of severe measures, hospitals could remain stable and the fatality rate could remain low.
But how long the isolation is needed to keep numbers low is not stated by the Columbia study. More than likely, isolation measures would need to be intact until a vaccine could be found, with estimates on that lasting as many as 18 months. This has raised questions about whether the economic damage of the restrictions could be worse than fatalities caused by the disease.
“We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself,” President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter on March 23. “At the end of the 15-day period, we will make a decision which way we want to go!”
Even though Brown was expected to institute a statewide “stay-at-home” order, for weeks she was hesitant to do so, citing concerns of the economic impact it would have.
In just three days, Oregon unemployment claims jumped from 800 to 18,500 after Brown instituted some control measures.
The concerns are shared by Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, which stopped short of saying Oregon is headed for a recession in its March 17 report. However, “It is likely that until the public health situation improves, or at least the fears subside as health policy plans are announced, the economic damage will continue to mount.”


The first of April will be a benchmark (as will the first of May).

In Oregon, the "start" of reality will begin over this upcoming weekend, after a full month of COVID19 appearing-installing-impacting and sinking in, the monthly household bills, the unavailable products, the slowdown, and the confirmation from friends, relatives, the new and at work (if you even still "have" a job) water cooler rumors, will make everything become "real" (for the first time).

And, if you have an infected relative/friend/co-worker it will be made "very" real.  The denying, not knowing, and flippant attitudes will all be gone come 1 April.

Jungian theory and Alcoholics Anonymus agree that "Acknowledging that you have a problem is step one in solving it",  but, there is more to that step one edict...  "and acknowledge that it is a life-threatening problem over which you are powerless".

DISASTER: " a sudden calamitous event bringing great damage, loss of life or destruction such as an accident or a natural catastrophe, or any an event or fact that has unfortunate consequences".

With the Oregon Governor's edict of stay-at-home and the closures, by the first of April, this will all begin to be real, and the panic, anger, depression, looting, OD'ing and violence will start to form.

The financial disaster that is imminent will be a driver of much, in an earlier post I alluded to looking at this from the bottom up (rather than like in the media), there are many categories of working man, but, I am mostly familiar with, and watching Maritime.

 In this mornings incoming were 50 or so advisals about commercial fishing... I began to list them here but saw a trend.

Fishing boats are finding landing prices in the basement, or, simply no place to unload at because no one wants their product.  processors freezers are full, and they have laid-off workers, transporters and delivery drivers are sitting at home, restaurants are giving away inventory as they close, online food ordering for seafood is too expensive, fresh fish markets are closed worldwide, fast food seafood orders are at 50% (10,000 UK fish and chips shops have been closed, McDonald's, Burger King are overstocked), and there is more (but you get the drift).

No matter what industry you are in Automotive, Retail, Real Estate, etc; the process is similar... the fishing boats sell-off at junk prices pay (and lay off) their crew, beg for time on their fuel bill, and lock it down, the industry is on hold... the over all shut down from "stay-at-home" is devastating.

Most of the world shops daily (unlike Americans), so the sudden overloading of the online food industry has become a joke, none of this will come to a fully realized boil until mid-month April, and the peak of the virus will not be here until sometime in May !

We have been exposed to a few disasters and revolts (out of this country), and learned a little about what to expect from primitive thinkers, and food-money-job shortages driving the home-bound mob to the burning windmill, 

watch for it at a looting near you, after all "anything" can be traded for food (whether you own it or not) in a "Stay-at-home" empty street community, and store with empty shelves, and no job or money.

Whenever we exit out the other end of this tunnel (on my Birthday in August), things are going to be very different and changed forever, but for now, be cautious.  


Monday, March 23, 2020


This site has been concentrating on the "big" picture (just because of who our readers are, and where they live), I think that the global inputs from all of you have been very important in educating and sharing the "knowns" and undoing the intentional "lag" of governments telling the public the entire story (pretending like everything is new-found learning).

The goings-on in India and Australia have been especially helpful in debunking what we are told (er, "not" told) here in America.

I think, however, now that "big picture' is clear, beginning with today we will now concentrate on what is happening here (not only in America), but specifically in my State of Oregon, and our home Port of Siuslaw environments, but please ! do not stop the communications !!

Looking at the time-chart trajectories, the 30 and 60 day marks are pivotal, so, next week end, we here in Oregon should typically start to flatten out, then peak around the end of April.

Getting from day 23 to day 60 is the trick... there is strong evidence that this outbreak will come in waves (like Tsunami), making this current episode only a "marker' wave... preceding the actual Tsunami that will hit over the summer, so, vigilance is paramount.

In response to your comments on the Marin County and Santa Monica California beach swarms and our Oregon reporting yesterday, but, also Florida and texas beaches had invasions, the Miami Mayor closed all marinas and boating and Miami-Dade police were out on the water and shutting down any parties, so, "Yes" people are ignoring the stay-at-home dictates, and even being belligerent about "not" mingling.

We have no local enforcement, and the attitude is "if we do not see it, it is not happening", so there are no police, fire, city, county vehicles or personnel circulating to observe and control, and no network for reporting like in many of your countries.  

Here in America we used to have local on-the-street volunteer civil organizations for Defense, Disaster, and Public Order like you have, but they sadly all morphed into "Paying"  and government-appointed jobs, that insulate themselves from what is happening.

Total we have 191 cases and 5 deaths in Oregon, with 3 cases and 1 death in the county we are berthed in, our Harbor town has nothing reported (that I can find).

As I wrote all of the above at noon-time, the Oregon Governor just closed down the state until 8 April, only emergency business will stay open and our Harbor will be locked down to all outsiders without a code for the gates.  When they said hide in place they were not kidding. 

We have been heavily cautioning you about accepting carry-out and delivered foods and to scrutinize the food preparer, his kitchen, AND the delivery vehicle and person ...

Order-in foods have containers...that have been touched by people you don't know, (they had to get touched to get them to your house), Dr. Mehmet Oz says "You need to discard those containers at the door, pour out the ingredients, the food in those containers are probably clean, but, get rid of those containers."... and, really consider "who" is cooking and serving that food, Are they working sick ?

After being in Interstate Catering and restaurants ourselves, we are very "aware' of what goes on in food preparation... especially during extended "slam" times, here are some pointers from our Doomship Catering Days.

Any experienced Chef (of any type) can simply walk into a galley area and envision its ability to be cleaned, how efficient it is/isnt, and how many it will take to generate the expected output.

Generally speaking, there are three areas of concern that a chef (and a restaurant Health Inspector) look for: 
Mechanical or Biological and Chemical food contamination.
The beginnings must be a clean work area, and clean food product, this is where poor design and over cleaning or using the wrong stuff chemically contaminates food, 

Thoroughly washing cooking equipment in hot soapy water, before and after each use, including all cutting boards, dishes, countertops, and utensils is simple, but, to ensure all cooking surfaces are up to professional kitchen standards sanitizer solutions are used it to wipe down all surfaces between each prep job.

 Only purchase food from known and safety compliant restaurant food suppliers to ensure your ingredients have been properly stored prior to purchase and during delivery.

Properly washing all fruits and vegetables to prevent Viruses, Germs and Bacteria by rinsing all organic matter from the vegetables is imperative.  

The products used for cleaning in all of this must be germicidal yet NSF food safe (very expensive), and maximum care must be made to not overspray product and to then rinse away chemical residue before processing food.

Mechanical ranges from that bolt that fell off the shredder, to a hair in the soup (yuk), to that upside down roach baked in the kish, to the band-aid that fell off from that cut.

The common-sense use of hair and beard netting, gloves, and constant hand washing, the removal of all jewelry and the prohibiting of anything with buttons or pockets is mandatory in the kitchen... glass or ceramics in any form or configuration should never-ever be allowed anywhere in the premises...anywhere !  

Per every States rules... Store all food and containers off the floor in NSF rodent-proof lids. Our practice was to always be able to fire-hose the floor at any time... All cleaning schedules for foodservice and prep areas, "must" be executed and concluded 60 full minutes "before and after" the use of the kitchen. 

Make it a practice to verbally announce loudly the throw-away of all bag clips-tie, lids, seals or similar... "BAG TIE IN TRASH !", enforce it. 

 Biological is far trickier, and the most abused...  Biological
 contaminations are responsible for foodborne illnesses, 
Salmonella, Listeria, Cyclospora, E. coli epidemics, 
Norovirus, Coronavirus, Rotavirus, Hepatitis outbreaks, and 
bacterial caused illness (aka food poisoning) from spoilage.

Invisible to the naked eye, all of  these microorganisms 
wreak havoc in your kitchen and the food being served.
Biological contaminations are typically passed through a 
sick or injured employee, improper handling, storage or 
cooking times of food, or cross contaminations of many 

Most kitchen workers and cooks don’t take the time to thoroughly 
wash their hands even "before" their shift, and certainly do not don’t wash
them in between tasks, yet, handwashing should always happen before and after every break, and between every stage of cooking... 

Never let an employee work when sick with a cold or virus has been a cardinal rule... working sick infects the product after it is cooked, so, do not think about the cooking temperature killing anything dan
A sneezed on plate of nachos is lethal, as is a nose wiped hamburger bun.

Resanitize work surfaces, utensils, and kitchen equipment after each job.
 Designate specific cutting boards, utensils, and containers for individual food types. For example, one set for raw beef, another for fish, etc. You can also invest in color-coded boards and utensil handles to help keep equipment separate. (we always used symbols/pictures). 

STORAGE: Avoid the food Danger Zones, especially between meal serving times when "on hold' keep cold food cold, and hot food hot to prevent bacteria from growing.

Organize your commercial reefers, freezers and walk-ins according to a food hierarchy storage chart to prevent cross contamination and ageing.